Currency of Commodities Optimistic about the Future of the World Economy

As inflation skyrocketed and central banks tightened policy over the past two years, many forecasters said a worldwide economic downturn was imminent. The manufacturing and services sectors of most industrialized economies have been contracting for several months, so this was a clear indication from the economic data. In Q4 of last year and Q1 of 2023, the New Zealand economy dropped for two consecutive quarters, officially putting the country into a recession.

The property market collapsed, and the manufacturing and service sectors both contracted, adding to China's mounting economic woes. However, there has been action from authorities, which has led to some improvement even if it hasn't been convincing to the markets. There has been a reversal in the downward trend of industrial production, manufacturing, and retail sales so far this month.

The employment numbers improved in September, and we also saw robust performance in other areas. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits has fallen to below 200K for the fourth straight day, while the August report on nonfarm payrolls (NFP) exceeded forecasts. Retail sales numbers for August, which were quite robust, showed that the services sector appears to be avoiding contraction/recession, which suggests strong demand and will help keep spending up.

The resilience shown by economies around the world in the four years since the coronavirus lockdown began is impressive, especially in the United States, where consumers have been hit particularly hard by rising prices and interest rates on mortgages and other loans. The labor market has been relatively solid, offering considerable support to the US economy, but the markets received a scare in August due to some disappointing employment figures.

Despite the FED's continued aggressive stance, the risk mood appears to be improving, and commodities currencies are reflecting that. Euro and GBP have been plunging lower, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD have held above this week's lows near 0.65 and 0.60 respectively. Additionally, the USD/CAD exchange rate has dropped to 1.3450, which is around 2.5 cents higher for the CAD. In light of this, we plan to keep a watch on commodities dollars in the hopes of entering the market on the long side whenever fears of a recession subside.

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